The hottest LLDPE weekly review repeatedly goes do

2022-08-08
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[LLDPE weekly review] repeatedly going down and changing the market needs momentum

I. Market Review (August 27 - Le Pen lost the first round of the French presidential election on August 31)

the slight upward trend last week did not reverse the weak and volatile situation. This week, LLDPE warehouse receipts reversed and fell, and the seller fully showed its downward momentum, while the buyer also lost its previous support in the daily transaction and repeatedly closed at the negative line. At present, the index fell to the lowest point in nearly three months

on Monday, although crude oil rose back above $70, the stimulus was limited, continuing the trend of falling from the high level of last weekend. Inertia jumped sharply and opened low. Although the intraday buyer had support, it still did not cover the gap in the end; This short jump gap made the buyer frustrated obviously, which predicted the overall downward trend of this week on a certain basis. On Tuesday, the high opening fell, the intraday selling pressure was significant, and the focus of the negative end moved down to below the daily average; Continuing this trend, on Wednesday, the inertia jump opened low, which also brought opportunities for their cooperation. Although the mid market was slightly explored, it was still weak to push up, and the late market fell again; On Thursday, despite the sharp rise in crude oil, the continuous long negative line offset its good news. After opening high, it fell sharply, and the center of gravity moved down again; On Friday, the short jump opened low, and the buyer showed weakness and weak support in the continuous decline. The LLDPE index fell step by step, and fell to the lowest point in nearly three months in order to facilitate the opening of packaging bags

in terms of data, as of Friday's close, the LLDPE warehouse receipt index reported 1314.41 points, down 23.57 points from last Friday. The settlement price of main warehouse receipts fell by an average of about 211 yuan/ton compared with the same period last week. The total turnover in a week was 16810 tons, the average daily turnover increased by 35 tons compared with last week, and the order volume on Friday was 4350 tons, down 340 tons compared with last Friday. The specific data are as follows:

warehouse receipt variety

settlement price (yuan/ton)

ll warehouse receipt turnover this Sunday (tons)

ll warehouse receipt order quantity (tons)

this weekend

last weekend

in the long run, bone loss caused problems such as prosthesis loosening

rise and fall

this week

last week

increase and decrease

this weekend

last weekend

increase and decrease

ll0710

12242

12429

187↓

3362

3327

35 ↑

4350

4690

340 ↓

ll0711

12236

12471

235 ↓

2 Comprehensive analysis:

on the K-line chart of the weekly index, LLDPE warehouse receipts this week received a long negative line with a bare head, the center of gravity moved down significantly, and the downward direction broke through the support of the daily average. The selling pressure was quite obvious. On the K-line chart of the daily index, a positive and four negative line was closed, and the center of gravity fell step by step, especially on Friday, the long negative line was deep down to the lowest point in nearly three months, the 5-day average reversed downward, the opening of the brin line was gradually enlarged, and the price line was hovering near the lower track, KDJ index continued to decline in oversold areas, the red column line in MACD index turned to green column line, and technical indicators showed that the selling pressure was relatively heavy

in terms of basic information, crude oil prices rose this week due to the decline in refinery failure inventories supporting the market, and the sharp decline in U.S. oil inventories. At present, WTI crude oil is $74.04/barrel, up $2.95 from the same period last week, and Brent crude oil is $72.69/barrel, up $2.07 from the same period last week. In terms of spot goods, at present, PetroChina's linear delivery in North China is flat, and the supply of goods in the southern market is less, and the inquiry is relatively good. However, with the production of Maoming Petrochemical 7042, the supply of goods in the market is gradually increasing, and the transaction is becoming lighter, and the mentality of traders is more volatile

to sum up, despite the support of the high level of the upstream, due to the continuous stalemate of the spot, the atmosphere is light, which forms a great resistance to the rise of LLDPE warehouse orders. The downward trend is more prominent this week. If there is no obvious positive information, it is expected that the LLDPE warehouse orders of Zhongsu will still have the possibility of inertia decline in the near future, but at the same time, the buyer's demand for technical adjustment and rebound at the low level will increase

(personal view, for reference only; enter the market accordingly, at your own risk)

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