A brief comment on the market of China Plastics wa

2022-09-23
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On March 4, China Plastics warehouse receipt LLDPE market brief comment

China Plastics price index fell 0.36 points to 786.99 points, and China Plastics warehouse receipt index rose 0.37 points to 701.37 points

I. upstream review

at the close of Tuesday, West Texas light oil April futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $41.65 a barrel, up $1.50 from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 39 $07; April Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange were $43.70 a barrel, up $1.49 from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 41 Ten dollars

Asian ethylene closed on Tuesday in USD/ton CFR Northeast Asia and USD/ton CFR Southeast Asia. European ethylene closed in euro/ton FD northwest Europe and USD/ton CIF northwest Europe. The contract price of ethylene in the United States rose 0.5 cents to 32 cents in February

at the close of Tuesday, Asian naphtha was reported at $42.58/barrel in Singapore and $385.875/ton in Japan. European naphtha Rotterdam closed at 376.25 US dollars/ton, and FOB ground poster was 357 US dollars/ton

II Fundamental news

① external quotation:

International dollar

March 2

March 3

unit

FD in northwest Europe

euro/ton

Houston Fas

dollar/ton

Far East CFR

USD/ton

FOB in the Middle East

USD/ton

data source: China Plastics ()

② Petrochemical dynamics:

the ex factory price of petrochemical in the morning is stable, The listing price is stable. Yangzi Petrochemical LLDPE unit produces 7042, Qilu Petrochemical LLDPE unit produces 7042. The unit is scheduled to be overhauled in April for one month, Zhongyuan Petrochemical LLDPE unit produces 7050, Tianjin Lianhua LLDPE unit is scheduled to start on March 6, Guangzhou Petrochemical LLDPE unit produces 7144, Maoming Petrochemical LLDPE unit produces 7042

③ spot market:

today, the international crude oil closed up slightly, and the situation of yesterday's sharp and deep price decline disappeared, and the quotation rose slightly. However, the overall transaction situation is poor, and the prices in some regions have fallen back. At present, the market price is upside down yuan/ton. Today, PetroChina East China/North China are listed at the original price, and businesses expect that PetroChina will also follow PetroChina's listing for sales. They are more active in selling when their mentality is poor

the PE market in China plastic city is mainly stable, fluctuates in a narrow range, and the transaction is weak, and there is no obvious improvement. The main reason is that the operating rate of downstream factories is not high, the market purchase volume is limited, and the transaction is not smooth; The second is the gradual arrival of import sources and the gradual increase of supply. Mainstream market price: yuan/ton

III Technical status

variety

opening price

closing price

settlement price

trading volume (batch)

order volume (batch)

ll0903

8270

8270

8270

4 ↓

42

ll090 is also the pioneer of electric vehicle implementation. 4

8050

8120

8094

43 ↑

109

ll0905

7900

8000

8028

there are differences in heating methods of plastic granulators

25 ↓

66

ll0906

-

-

-

-

-

quotation unit: yuan/ton

data source: medium Plastic information ()

at the opening of trading today, LLDPE warehouse receipts opened down at a low price, and then the market bottomed out and rebounded, boosted by the rebound in oil prices. In less than half an hour, the index recovered all the land lost in the early stage and formed a rising trend. Since then, the market has further increased step by step. At the end of the morning market, the index was reported at 805.34 (2) the direction of cutter cutting was perpendicular to the fiber axis point, and the mid market rose 4.58 points. Opening in the afternoon, the warehouse receipt oscillated in a narrow range, with a very small amplitude, and the disk price basically remained unchanged. The final LLDPE warehouse receipt closed at 806.34, up 5.57 points from the previous trading day. The K-line of the index closed lower than the positive line, under pressure from the 5-day and 10 day moving average, and the moving average system continued to converge. The downward trend of the KDJ index deviated from the trend of the index, and the opening of the BOL line narrowed. Today's trading volume was average, with both trading volume and order volume declining slightly

the main variety ll0904 opened slightly lower and quickly covered the early decline shortly after the opening. There was upward resistance in the market. Several times of hitting the price above 8100 failed, but the late rally finally expanded and stood at the 10 day moving average. By the end of the day, the settlement price of ll0904 was 8094 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton

IV. future forecast

in addition to purchasing on demand, there is no sign of large-scale production in downstream factories, resulting in sluggish effective demand and unsatisfactory transaction. Recently, rumors about the listing of petrochemicals have resurfaced, and many people in the market wait and see. Do you understand the market pessimism? The market downturn will continue until the petrochemical sales policy is clear. It is expected that the market will fluctuate slightly in the near future, and the overall market will remain stable

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