Four trends in manufacturing industry attract atte

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Four trends of manufacturing industry accelerated by new trade formats attracted attention

in the first half of this year, China's import and export showed a gradual warming trend. At the press conference held by the State Council Office on July 10, Zheng Yuesheng, spokesman of the General Administration of customs and director of the Department of comprehensive statistics, pointed out that the import and export growth rate in the second half of this year will be significantly higher than that in the first half of 2014

Zheng Yuesheng said that factors such as the transfer of traditional intensive manufacturing industry from China to surrounding countries, the return of developed countries to manufacturing, as well as factors such as the increase of production cost factors such as labor, the rise of international trade frictions, and the fluctuation of bulk commodity prices, will affect the trend of China's foreign trade in the second half of the year. It can be seen that the foreign trade situation is still severe and complex, and the task of achieving the expected growth target of 7.5% for the whole year is still very arduous

According to customs statistics, in the first half of 2014, China's total import and export value was 12.4 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.9% over the same period last year, of which exports were 6.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.2%; Imports were 5.9 trillion yuan, down 0.6 percent; The trade surplus was 630.61 billion yuan, down 6.5%

from the characteristics of foreign trade import and export, import and export showed a gradual warming trend, general trade increased steadily, processing trade decreased slightly, bilateral trade with major trading partners increased, the proportion of foreign trade in seven provinces and cities such as Guangdong and Jiangsu fell, the size of foreign trade in the central and western regions was still correct, exports maintained a strong momentum, the import and export of foreign-invested enterprises and state-owned enterprises increased, and the import and export of private enterprises decreased, The export of mechanical and electrical products fell, the export of traditional labor-intensive products increased slightly, the import volume of energy and resource products increased and the price fell. The export leading index shows that the export growth rate will accelerate in the future

on the whole, the year-on-year growth rate of total import and export value achieved positive growth in the second quarter, especially in May and June, the growth rate of import and export growth increased month by month. Analyzing the reasons, Zheng Yuesheng summarized it into four aspects: promotion, stabilization, innovation and elimination

promotion refers to promotion. On May 4 this year, due to the high ambient temperature, the office of the State Council issued several opinions on supporting the stable growth of foreign trade. Subsequently, the General Administration of customs and other departments of the State Council successively issued supporting measures, and Guangdong, Jiangsu and other major foreign trade provinces formulated corresponding implementation plans. The foreign trade export leading index released by the General Administration of Customs shows that the leading index of China's foreign trade exports in May and June was 42.3 and 42.2 respectively, the highest and second highest in the past two years. It shows that a series of central and local policies and measures in the early stage have formed a joint force, which has effectively boosted the confidence of foreign trade enterprises, and the positive effect of supporting the stable growth of foreign trade is constantly emerging

stable refers to the stabilization of the economic situation. On June 10 this year, the World Bank released the global economic outlook report. It is expected that the global economy will gradually accelerate in the second half of this year, with an annual growth rate of 2.8%, 0.4 percentage points higher than that in 2013. Under the condition of oil immersion and smoothness. On July 3, JPMorgan Chase released data showing that the global industry wide PMI output index averaged 54.1 in the second quarter of this year, the best level since the first quarter of 2011. These data also show that the global economy is experiencing a sustained recovery, and the external demand for China's foreign trade will further improve, which will help China's foreign trade import and export enterprises stabilize and improve

new refers to the development and acceleration of some new trade formats, which have become some new highlights to improve China's opening-up level. For example, since the end of 2012, we have launched cross-border e-commerce service pilots in five cities, including Shanghai and Hangzhou. On October 1st, 2013, Shanghai pilot free trade zone was officially put into operation, and it is running well at present. In addition, China has actively participated in the construction of high standard free trade zones and accelerated the negotiation of free trade agreements. In addition, the strategic concept of jointly building the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st century Maritime Silk Road has also received positive reactions from the international community. The accelerated development of these new trade formats is becoming a new growth point of China's foreign trade

consumption refers to the high import and export base of China's foreign trade from January to April last year, resulting in a negative year-on-year growth in China's import and export in the same period this year. With the disappearance of these high base effects, China's import and export growth achieved positive growth in May and June

in the second half of this year, the return to weak friction needs attention.

ZHENG Yuesheng predicts that in the third quarter of this year, the growth rate of standard trade of 9 products abroad, including additives GB 9685, enamel, ceramics, glass, plastic (resin), paper and paperboard, metal, paint and coating, rubber and other materials and products, will be further accelerated than that in the second quarter. As for the factors affecting the development of China's foreign trade import and export in the second half of the year, in addition to the four positive and beneficial factors of promotion, stability, innovation and consumption, the transformation, return, weakness and friction will also affect the trend of foreign trade in the second half of the year

transfer refers to the accelerated transfer of traditional manufacturing industries, especially labor-intensive industries, to neighboring countries such as Southeast Asia. China's export of labor-intensive products has continued to decline in major market shares in Europe, America and Japan. In the first quarter of this year, the share of seven categories of labor-intensive commodities such as textiles in the U.S. market fell by 0.6 percentage points. Its market share in the EU and Japan fell by 0.9 and 2.4 percentage points respectively. At the same time, the market share of Vietnam, Mexico, India and other similar products in the United States increased by 0.8 and 0.1 percentage points respectively; The market share of similar products in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan in Europe and the United States increased by 0.6, 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points year-on-year respectively; The market share of similar products from Vietnam, Thailand and Bangladesh in Japan increased by 1, 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points respectively

return refers to the fact that some developed countries have taken measures to promote the return of manufacturing industry to their home countries in order to revitalize their economies and expand employment, and foreign investment is cooling. From January to May this year, the actual use of foreign capital in China's manufacturing industry was US $17.4 billion, down 16.5%. According to the analysis report of the International Monetary Fund, factors such as the competitiveness of the US dollar exchange rate and the cheap energy brought by the shale gas revolution have driven the recovery of the US manufacturing industry. The report also pointed out that after the current crisis, the manufacturing industry in the United States not only recovered rapidly, but also quickly recovered to a level higher than that before the crisis. The return of manufacturing industry in developed countries will have a certain impact on China's related industries and foreign trade

weak means that the cost of labor and other production factors continues to rise, weakening the competitiveness of China's export products. In addition, the operating costs of financing, land, raw materials, etc. of China's export enterprises continue to rise, the constraints of resources are also increasing, and the environmental constraints are becoming more and more strict. The competitive advantage of China's traditional industries is constantly weakening

friction means that the intensification of trade friction inhibits the further expansion of China's export space. At present, Global trade protectionism continues to rise, and trade restrictions have increased. On February 17, the global trade monitoring report released by the WTO showed that in the one year from mid October 2012 to mid November 2013, Member States had taken 407 trade restrictive measures. Since 2014, Global trade protectionism has become increasingly fierce. For example, in May, the United States took as many as six trade relief actions against Chinese exports

in addition to the above four factors, since this year, global commodity supply has exceeded demand, and prices have continued to fall. Although the decline in commodity prices is conducive to improving China's terms of trade, it also lowers the current import value to a certain extent. It is estimated that the trend of low commodity prices will continue in the second half of the year, which will also have a certain impact on China's imports, especially those calculated by trade value

Zheng Yuesheng predicted that China's export growth in the third quarter will be faster than that in the second quarter, but the monthly growth rate will fluctuate slightly

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